Genesis Morocco: Carbon credit and the INDH, possible synergies


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Genesis Morocco

Project Genesis is a strategic sustainable development framework for Morocco to translate from being a net importer of energy and a country facing water shortage issues, into the number one producer both of clean renewable energy and water in the region.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009    <<Home

Carbon credit and the INDH, possible synergies


It is estimated that a 1 GW-scale of CSP deployment would result in carbon
emissions avoidance of 2.6 million tons per year in the MENA region based on current
conditions and assumptions from previous work. (sourced World bank CTF/TFC.3/7
April 27, 2009.)

The cost of energy is set to increase as the price of carbon continues to rise between now and 2012, creating a further incentive for firms to invest in energy efficiency measures.

That is the prediction of analyst firm New Carbon Finance, which last week upgraded its expectations for the price of EUA (EU Emission Allowance) carbon credits traded through the European Union's emissions trading scheme (ETS), claiming prices could reach €38 per tonne between now and 2012. For most of 2008, carbon traded at around €20 to €25 a tonne (sourced European Commission website http://ec.europa.eu/)

In March 2008 the company predicted that average prices for phase II of the scheme, running from 2008 to 2012, would stand at €28 a tonne, but since then prices have spiked to over €26 a tonne, prompting the company to revise its projections upwards.

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Trading in global carbon markets rose 61% last year, and European carbon trading during the first half of 2009 exceeded all of the activity during 2008, according to a report published Monday.

International Financial Services, London, or IFSL, said global markets trading in carbon dioxide emissions last year rose 61% from 2007 to 4.81 billion metric tons.

// personal notes :

For most of 2008, carbon traded at around €20 to €25 a tonne. (post recession figure, Im sure prices will go back to that number pretty soon. actually prices are slightly above 10)

31.2 million tons carbon emissions avoidance per year for the projected 12 GW Solaris Morocco capacity.

Lets take the low end figure of €20 a tonne for 2008 on the EU carbon emissions trade market, thats equivalent to :

€ 624 millions, roughly 7 billions MAD that could be reversed to the INDH budget thus multiplying the current budget of 1.4 billions MAD by 5.

You can factor that over 10 years, my conservative estimate is that it would add up to € 10 billions, 120 billions MAD thats 8x the factored INDH budget for the same period .

Now for the jobs, every 100 MW installed will provide 400 full-time equivalent
manufacturing jobs, 600 contracting and installation jobs and 30 annual jobs in
Operations and Management. (sourced World bank CTF/TFC.3/7
April 27, 2009 )

Projected workforce for Solaris Morocco :

12 000 Mw : 123 600 Jobs, distributed as such

48 000 : full time equivalent manufacturing jobs

72 000 : contracting and installation jobs

3600 : annual jobs in O
&M.