Genesis Morocco: Maths for expansion II Doubling the GDP / Project Edge

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Genesis Morocco

Project Genesis is a strategic sustainable development framework for Morocco to translate from being a net importer of energy and a country facing water shortage issues, into the number one producer both of clean renewable energy and water in the region.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008    <<Home

Maths for expansion II Doubling the GDP / Project Edge

I would like to outline here my strategic vision, of becoming one of the regions prime exporters of energy in the near future.

It is basically a blow up of Solaris Morocco into proportions that match France's EDF.

EDF is the prime European energy producer, with a capacity of 128 GW.

The 12 Gw of Solaris Morocco far from being able to compete with such a giant. The question is how do we redefine the entire strategical orientation of a country to draw it from an agrarian economy into becoming an energy producer. The answer is simple, expansion to match EDF, since im taking EDF as a role model.

Let us redo some maths, maths have been constantly on my mind for the last days.

First let us start with how much Solaris is going to cost.

The basic unit, a stirling dish, would cost in my estimate, being fabricated in Morocco either through technology transfer of by the implementation of SES and subsidiaries locally, anywhere from 10 000 to 20 000 dollars per unit. 480 000 such units are needed to achieve a capacity of 12 GW. Bringing the cost only for the units to 7.2 billions USD (middle range figure of 15 000 USD per unit)

This estimate is based on a local production and possible technology transfer.

To that we should add the costs for the factories that are going to produce the units, theses should be semi robotized to allow for fast and efficient delivery of a vast quantity of units.

Estimate anywhere from a 100 millions USD to 250 millions USD.

Total cost 7.45 billions /

Now for the implementation, another 300 millions USD to bring us to a figure of 8 billion dollars give or take, for a capacity equal to 13.3 nuclear plans of 900 MW yield.

Project Edge /

To match EDF staggering 128 GW, theses figures should be considered : X 10.6

It would be simple to multiply the cost by 10, but proportionally the more units we produce, the lower the costs.

An estimated figure of 80 billions USD would allow Morocco, in a phased plan over 20 to 25 years to produce 120 GW of clean renewable energy making it a major player in the energy production and distribution business.

The size of this megaproject is quite impressive, 4370 square kilometers, its location would be our southern provinces, the Moroccan Sahara where we have 266,000 sq km of ideally situated land, that is not fit for agrarian purposes.

Roughly 1.65 percent of the total superficy of the desert would be covered with Stirling Dishes. Such an installation would be visible from the moon.

A figure of 80 billions USD might seem like a lot but is much less in comparison of building nuclear capacity to achieve such yield

Where do we come up with the funding ? I already outlined some ideas considering the funding of Solaris Morocco, with a joint consortium of public money, national capital and international capital. Also critical for the future of Solaris, would be that is traded on the stock market, with a large amount of shares reserved for private, small individual shareholders.

Put simply the dividends would be similar to those of EDF with 93,12 Billions USD (although EDF makes a lot of money from distribution ), and would make Morocco the prime exporter of renewable energy in the world.

A sizable portion of the national GDP $125.3 billion (2007 est.) (source CIA Factbook)

As a matter of fact Morocco could double its GDP with a total overall investment of 80 Billions USD.

What to do with the money:

Boosting the INDH while creating jobs.

We are facing many challenges, irrigation, unemployment, social security and the likes, such an amount would allow the country to make a great leap forward. Food for thoughts. Expansion of an economy through reliable renewable energy incomes is a fascinating prospect. It would give Morocco a competitive edge when petrol reserves are exhausted by 2050 or even before.